People want to know what's going to happen. Because knowing the future ahead of the time will give them tremendous advantages, they think they will be better prepared and all. For that reason, there's no shortage of predictions or prophecies around. Good product-market fit.
But the thing is, not many prediction-makers draw their conclusions based on solid evidence and sound logic. Garbage input, garbage processing engine, and what do you expect comes out?
Yet, since there are a large number of prolific prophets around, some of them are bound to happen to make the "correct" predictions, regardless of the previous misses. Few people are keeping track anyway, that's why this market just can't die.
Now, besides the unreliable nature of all this, I am hypothesizing that, more critically, it is also stealing people's attention from far more important life skills, such as problem solving, and crisis response.
Take learning as an example, many students, esp. the good ones, tend to learn subjects they deem important ahead of the regular schedule (e.g. AP courses for high schoolers), and that's indeed how they maintain the competitive edge. And this tactic is not bad in itself. But if it makes people think that all they need to do to stay ahead of others is to know what to learn next and then learn it before the others do, then they will miss out on something far more important, which is real-time, on-line, on the spot, learning. At any given time and space, once there is need for learning, you can learn it with the resources available, even under time pressure. And you know you don't have the luxury to learn everything, or learn everything perfectly. You then learn to learn only what really matters and let go of the lesser details.
All of this, is much more essential. Now don't get me wrong, those who learn ahead of the time aren't always doing that just to beat the competitors, it is often just because they are highly motivated and interested in the subject matter, and curiosity is an awesome trait. My point was to draw an analogy between that and the unhealthy obsession of knowing exactly what's coming and being prepared all the time, as it is I believe creating a fragile mental dynamics. Because the reality is, due to the complexity of the world, you're bound to live in much uncertainty and surprise.
Sometimes, more is less (ref: the book by Barry Schwartz).
I think it's the quality of the actions people do in response to what has happened that matters, more than the state of being prepared for all conceivable possibilities. The latter is a mere illusion anyway, maybe even a dangerous one.
The noise: some people, with a voice, claim that they are the makers of history, and argue that it's the storytellers like them that matter, more than the actual heroes who've made things happen. I understand what they're trying to say, but the thing is, there is no single "mic" that dictates the truth, there are lots of competing mics, and eventually, the true one stays. Might take a while, but bullshit will reveal itself, sooner or later.
Of course, we need honest and intelligent storytellers, a lot. But if you can, be the good ones who make good things happen. All things are set in stone, I mean, the space-time.